Independent research on prediction markets. Tallinn, Estonia.

We count what prediction markets do. Our app is free.

Studies on Polymarket and Kalshi, each with its method and its data. And Vultax, the app we measure with: every market and its order book, 80,000 traders, a paper desk.

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Prediction markets5 min read

Polymarket 2026 midterm scorecard: 13,186 contracts frozen before the vote

Every Polymarket contract about the 2026 US midterms, frozen on 17 October: 13,186 contracts in 1,352 events, a hashed manifest, two price checkpoints and a Brier rule declared before the vote. In 402 of 507 races the favourite already trades at 90¢ or more.

Prediction markets6 min read

Polymarket efficiency: two tests, updated monthly

On PredictIt, the bids on every outcome of a busy market added up to 110 to 125¢. On Polymarket the typical event adds up to 87¢, and long shots win more often than their price says. Two tests, rerun every month.

Prediction markets10 min read

Best Polymarket Traders: 36 Wallets Took 44% of Gains; Winners Repeat 41–51% of the Time

Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; across all wallets, a winning month was followed by another 41–51% of the time, and 124 of 137 among the most active.

Measured, then published.

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We ask the regulators.

Europe's gambling authorities answer Vultax's questions in writing, and we publish what they say.

All market updates →
  1. GermanyGGLProceedings confirmed against Polymarket and Kalshi. Election bets cannot be licensed.
  2. SpainDGOJWhether Polymarket is blocked depends on your network. We measured it.
  3. CzechiaMinistry of Financekalshi.com is on the Czech blocklist. Providers block it from 15 October.
  4. LithuaniaGaming Control AuthorityPolymarket blocked, and other prediction markets now under review.

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Questions

How figures are computed is in the methodology. Anything else: contact.

What is Vultax Research?
A research body in Tallinn that measures prediction markets and crypto markets and publishes what it finds, with a free app that shows the same markets live.
Is it free?
Yes. The studies, the data and the app. No card, and no account for the research.
Does Vultax trade?
No. We hold no positions on any market we measure. The app trades on paper only.
Can I use the data?
Yes, with a link to the study. Data we hold under licence is shown within that licence and says so.